So a black swan has landed and the world never saw it coming.
In fact, the world never sees a black swan coming.
It's not the first black swan and not the last one.
The Coronavirus that is infecting the world is the best recent example of a Black Swan Event.
For those of you that dont know the black swan theory let me explain.
“The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.”
Black Swan theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain the following:
“The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.”
Like I mentioned earlier this will not be the last Black Swan event.
There will be more.
In the comfortable modern societies people have been living in the last 70 years and especially the last 25 years made people complacent.
The western world got comfortable and thought that we can exist independently from nature.
Sure we have “conquered” a large part of the natural world but we haven't defeated the powerful forces that will always exist in nature.
The current Black Swan event will pass just like others.
The world has been through world wars and massive pandemics before and we will get through this one.
So this brings us to the question: How should we react in situations like this?
-Don't Panic, Plan,Prepare and Lead.
Firstly stay calm.
People will freak out because of the natural tendency of sheep to panic in stressful situations.
But if you have a sheepdog mindset then it's your job as a man to show leadership with your calm masculine energy.
Panic helps nobody.
It literally does nothing for you except cause people around you to freak out and cause more panic.
Next plan how you will approach the situation: Do this by getting the best information you can find from credible sources.
This means you ignore all mainstream fake news.
So for example in the current situation go the CDC website or credible medical websites to find information.
Access the information and then plan and decide how you are going to approach the Black Swan.
If you are a reader of this blog then you know that I like being prepared.
Prepared not paranoid or panicked.
Not just for the current event but just being prepared as a way of life.
This means always have the minimum amount of non-perishable foods in storage for any emergency situation not just for the current one.
Viruses, hurricanes or any other disaster can cut the food supply and its always better to have a bit of food and water stored away.
This does not mean you should act like the apocalypse is coming.
Just be able to stay home and observe the situation knowing you have food for at least a month.
Remember you can only control certain things in this universe.
So control what you can and let the rest go.
You are now prepared and have done your planning.
-Commit to Expansion Not Contraction.
Life goes on even in times of panic and chaos.
Your mission in life does not stop.
Your goals are still important and need to be focused on.
After you planned and taken care of things you can control then start executing again on what you need to do.
Don't let your mind get consumed by fear.
Humans react fearfully to things they can't see or control.
This is because of the way we evolved in nature.
A long time ago when humans were walking through a big forest and we only had spears to defend ourselves against wild animals we evolved the fear response to the darkness.
In other words, we got terrified of things we cannot see and get control over.
The good news is that some men learned the ability to take control of that fearful part of the brain and take control back.
Not control of the event but control of their own minds.
I said earlier you need to show leadership and direction in a time of panic.
This applies to your own business, job or career.
The world is not stopping, it's just slowing down and that means you have to adapt and push forward.
You must persist and not quit.
When this thing started most people will stop working hard and they will contract with the fear.
Don't contract, keep expanding.
You must persist and keep leading.
–Take Advantage Weakness. Find out what
others won't do and do it.
Firstly I want to say that in Black Swan events human life should always be the first priority.
We should all help where we can.
But the circumstances around that we cannot change.
And we need to find the weakness in the situation and exploit it.
The weakness is there and nobody can change that.
For example, if you have money to invest then it might be a good time to do it while markets are down then you can make some money when things return to normal.
Baron Rothschild, an 18th-century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with saying that:
“The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets.”
Now as extreme as this statement sounds I think you get the point.
If you have a business find out what you can do now that will make a difference when things start returning to normal?
If you are not in business or investing then find out what actions you can take at your work, profession or job that will benefit you when things return to normal?
In most Black swan events it is not the event itself that causes the most damage.
Its the reaction of the people to the event that causes the most damage.
The current emotional overreaction, panic, and chaos is an example of that.
The coddled and spoilt western countries are being woken up out of its sleep and most are not prepared for what they find when they wake up.
In modern society, the majority of men have unfortunately gotten lost in modern culture and take no responsibility for themselves and everything they do.
If you are reading this then you need to take ownership of everything that is happening now and in the future.
This Black Swan event is just a reminder that you should always be ready and always be a leader.
So stay calm.